Investment keeps the cycle moving
Despite geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and increased interest rates, the global economy remains surprisingly resilient. Global growth of around 3% is still expected for 2026. The United States in particular continues to surprise on the upside, while Europe, although growing considerably more slowly, is also proving to be more resilient than expected at the beginning of the year.
What is particularly notable is not so much the pace of growth as its composition. Investment is expanding significantly faster than private consumption. AI-driven investment in data centres, semiconductor capacity and electricity grids has spread well beyond the United States. At the same time, higher spending on infrastructure and defence is generating additional demand. Across the G7 economies, investment is expected to grow almost twice as fast as private consumption in 2026 and 2027.
Regional differences remain substantial. In the United States, technology investment and robust consumption continue to support economic activity. The eurozone is benefiting from higher public spending and a recovery in credit demand, but with expected growth of just under 1%, growth remains subdued. China, by contrast, is losing momentum: strong exports and investment in future technologies can only partly compensate for persistently weak domestic demand.
Switzerland has been a positive surprise. Although the strong second quarter was partly driven by an exceptional contribution from exports in the chemical industry and pharma, leading indicators and domestic demand point to a broader stabilisation.
Despite higher interest rates, we remain constructive. The investment cycle should continue to support global expansion, although higher financing costs and energy prices are increasing the risks. The key question will be whether strong investment spending translates into lasting productivity gains. The cycle is continuing, but its durability will increasingly depend on the strength and effectiveness of investment.
