Despite easing inflation, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries remain elevated. This is driven less by economic performance than by structural factors: rising debt levels and the recent Moody\u2019s downgrade of U.S. creditworthiness are undermining investor confidence \u2013 leading to risk premiums.<\/p>\n
The consequences are serious: refinancing is becoming more expensive for the U.S., narrowing fiscal policy leeway and raising the risk of a dangerous debt spiral. Typically, such an environment would support the dollar. However, capital has increasingly shifted toward gold (2025 YTD return in USD: +25.8%) and selectively into crypto (Bitcoin: +15.1%) \u2013 clear signs of growing skepticism about the dollar as a reserve currency.<\/p>\n
In Japan, long-end yields are starting to rise. After decades of ultra-loose monetary policy, a return to market-driven rates is slowly unfolding. The Bank of Japan is attempting to maintain control \u2013 but volatility remains high.<\/p>\n
In Europe, the ECB has paused its easing after two rate cuts. Uncertainty around wages, energy prices, and political risks calls for caution. Switzerland presents a unique situation: real interest rates are very low, and the yield curve is now mostly driven by expectations and speculation \u2013 actual interest rate signals are hard to find.<\/p>\n
The interest rate environment remains fragile. Investors should actively manage duration and currency risks \u2013 standard solutions no longer suffice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Is the USA facing a deadly debt spiral? The refinancing of bonds is becoming increasingly expensive and is narrowing the scope for fiscal policy. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":5419,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":13,"footnotes":""},"categories":[69],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interest-rates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5426"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5426\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5432,"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5426\/revisions\/5432"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belvedere-am.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}